Can future weather be predicted?

Elsa

A week later Elsa decides to go back to her story. It is now mid-May and the weather is still very cold. Did Spring really forget this year? Or could it have been the polar vortex that caused such cold weather? 

‘To understand the long-term behavior of the atmosphere, climate scientists look at weather patterns over many decades or even centuries. The scientists study the way energy moves through the atmosphere — measuring and modeling things like the amount of sunlight hitting Earth, the rate that the oceans absorb heat and the mix of gases in Earth's atmosphere over time. By studying the root causes of long-term changes in Earth's atmosphere, climate scientists can project future effects.

Regardless of short-term weather, the data about the long-term changes in Earth's atmosphere are clear. The concentration of carbon dioxide - a potent greenhouse gas - is on the rise. The Earth is getting hotter on average, and a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. That suggests that as the climate shifts, droughts and floods that used to merit international attention will become commonplace. And while a shift to hotter average temperatures may sound innocuous or even pleasant, the danger comes from the more frequent extreme heat waves and the variability of an unstable atmosphere - bouncing from extreme heat to extreme cold in very short time frames. There is no doubt that as those extremes become the norm, they will have profound effects on global food security, health and water access.’ (Source)

And now our story comes to an end. Elsa is still not sure if it’s the polar vortex that caused this cold weather.  Or could it be that spring just forgot to show up this year.

The end!

Start at the beginning – The year that spring forgot