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Valentine Knockout round: Analysis

christinewupp

For anyone who has not started yet:

There are twenty players per leaderboard. Five will qualify for the finals.

I am noting down my opponents' data:

starting level
levels passed in 7days (which would indicate how many levels they crushed in the qualifiers)
last episode race
win streak

Then at the end, as in the qualifier, I intend to calculate the average purple score per level for each opponent.

I am hoping to analyse if there are individual differences between the strength of players each account is allocated and if allocation of opponents is bespoke or random, and/or linked to the multiplier token group.

I'm joining as it fits in with my personal time schedule now.

Anyone with data to contribute let us know which multiplier token group you are part of.

Welcome! 👋

Comments

MannyFae

I entered with 14 hours left. A token was used by only one player (2nd position). If you don't set a goal of observing behaviors, then the late entry seems to be the best strategy to save your tokens for the final. Of course, it wasn't necessary to overtake players placed first and second, but completing the Baker's box was just enough to do it.

christinewupp

Here is my analysis:

In each of my five leaderboards between two and three of the five qualifiers used a token. Those players who did not use a token had to crush varying amounts of episodes to qualify, between five and 10 episodes depending on the test group.

Here are the scores I had to beat (the sixth placed players):

Echinacea x30 multiplier group: 16,631

Nasturtium x5 multiplier group: 10,081

Dahlia x 10 multiplier group: 14,776

Allium x10 multiplier group: 11,591

Cornflower x 10 multiplier group: 8515

All accounts played for the entire duration of the event.

There was some odd player behaviour observed and notably players very close in sixth place making no effort to catch up or overtake. Very little activity was noted in the last few hours of the event.

On no board was there anyone coming from way behind and playing their token late to overtake others. I was an exception to the rule: I had to play one of my three tokens to make sure of qualification in four of five accounts. I did this with about 12 - 24 left on the clock when I realised this would be necessary. I find it odd that nobody else was doing this. It would seem to make sense: Try to crush normally and save your tokens and see if it's enough. If it isn't, then use it. Everyone else either crushed hundreds of levels normally to qualify, used their tokens early on and then slowed down to qualify, or - as in the vast majority of cases - gave up altogether.

Most players were playing at win streak 0. Those who did manage to get a win streak going usually lost it within a few levels. Is this game too hard? I certainly found mine hard: Most rated levels required extra moves plus a booster to get past.

As there were a lot of levels being crushed in these five accounts I got some pretty convincing data on purple scores at the varying level ranges.

Those players playing below level 1000 had the lowest average scores:

100-120 purple/level

Players at 1000 - 5000 almost all scored between 110 -135 purple per level (averaged)

Players above 6000 varied a little more and tend to score 130-160 purple on average. Some episodes are better than others, but some clever computing seems to have made the averages pretty even and predictable now. There were some averages above 160, but we cannot be certain that those players didn't use a multiplier token for part of their run. I reliably scored between 120-150 average/level in all accounts, both in the qualifiers and in the knockout round.

So (average) purple output per level is tightly controlled by the app.

My own strategy for the finals will be to play one token early on and play the other token near the end of the final. I have timed myself so that all of my accounts will see their 6th daily stamp during the finals, so I will try to incorporate those boosters when I use my tokens. Obviously I cannot win with all accounts, but it will be interesting to watch the others play it out. I am curious to see how many players still have their tokens.

christinewupp

That old trick still works then @michimune : You needed only to play one or maybe two episodes to qualify. I also found that 2-3 of the five qualifiers used a token on each leaderboard.

michimune

I entered into this round around 10 hours left to closing😆:

I was no.9😜

What was happening in the top position?🤔👀

No.1 Coolicat was using token to keep her position

No.2 Poseidón had finished his token and took a break

No.3 jules had started using her token.

Last round only one player used token, this round had three.😏

X30 tokens are very powerful, so it’s easy to know who used them.

This No.2 player card was taken AFTER this round:

He had passed only 10 levels for the last round and this round, so I think he had used token on last round too, maybe his strategy is a token per round. 🤞

I closed my game SUDDENLY to enjoyed my breakfast first 🫖🍞

🎉🎊yeah~🥳

This kind of daily reward is better than the Season Pass🤭🤭

The top 3 had appeared after my breakfast:

Last 3 minutes:

Paula had opened her game two hours ago, but I think she had sufficient score to qualify in her OWN leaderboard.

christinewupp

Whilst those are interesting scores, because the first five go through what is really of most interest here is the score of the person in fifth or sixth place (6th if you are yourself in the top 5, otherwise the 5th) as that is the score you would have to beat to get to the finals.

Jejsta123

The leader on my board is showing as level 280, current win streak is 22. Score is 10794. Player 2 is at level 2523 with a win streak of 0 score is 6869.

christinewupp

https://community.king.com/en/candy-crush-saga/discussion/comment/3477917#Comment_3477917

Do you actually believe this is a possibility or are you joking? I never quite know if you are jesting with your comments…. I wouldn't quite put it past them, but I am inclined to believe Alienscar's version. Maybe everyone got stuck after their mad crushing spree and after spending all their gold. Judging by comments we read in this forum that is a definite possibility. King make the game easier for everyone before these events, make players feel good about winning their qualifier rounds and then they increase level difficulty and reduce freebies from events, so the game gets harder for the knockout rounds. This means players spend their gold, maybe buy some (so King hope) in order to get to the finals. That could explain why everyone has lost their win streaks.

Alienscar

So essentially all these players were stuck at a level when they entered the knockout round.

That happened to me @christinewupp The first level of the Episode I played for the Knockout was a Super Hard. It took me six minutes to complete it. Similar to complaints during the All Stars subjectively the levels feel harder since the Meltdown started.

If so then all those measures King introduced to encourage players to keep their win streaks, like the super charger, win streak bags, Candy Royale etc must be a resounding failure

Well we have been advising people for years not to hold on to their Win Streaks, so maybe people listen. 😉

I played one Episode to finish third on the leaderboard. I used one of my X5 tokens.

michimune

Looking at the player cards: Out of 95 opponents 43 have a win streak of zero or 1. So essentially all these players were stuck at a level when they entered the knockout round.

Perhaps these bespoke opponents are already excluded from the Qualifiers, they were the no.4, no.5 and no.6 in last round 🤔

They are just picked for you and they don't need to play this event actually.

Peaches12

I just checked the win streaks on my opponents and two have a win streak of 15, one has 12, ten have 0, and everyone else is under 10.

christinewupp

All my games have started now and I am perplexed once again by the overall lack of strength of the opponents.

Looking at the player cards: Out of 95 opponents 43 have a win streak of zero or 1. So essentially all these players were stuck at a level when they entered the knockout round. That is almost half of all participants, and these are the top 50% of crushers, those that passed the qualifiers.

It makes me wonder if:

a) this is indeed representative of the player base. If so then all those measures King introduced to encourage players to keep their win streaks, like the super charger, win streak bags, Candy Royale etc must be a resounding failure

b) these opponents are fake and put in our games to make it easy for all players to get into the final

c) the best players are all being excluded from this event, which is unfair

I have noted that once again my newbie game is having much easier opponents than the others, it is also the only one that has the x5 multiplier. This new account started playing three weeks ago and is now at level 830. To pass the qualifiers it needed to beat a score of just 796 (which is four levels) in three days! Now in the knockouts I am seeing no opponent with a win streak greater than 6 and so far one episode is enough for me to be in the lead after 12 hours.

None of these people I am up against are consistently playing, or are playing much at all. If this is representative of the true player base then this game has huge problem. I doubt that though. It's more likely the event is a fake.

Binx55

I never had the option to play the Valentine Knockout round.

Deal_One

@christinewupp Thanks for the advice. I have not started yet.

Comments

MannyFae

christinewupp

Here is my analysis:

Here are the scores I had to beat (the sixth placed players):

Echinacea x30 multiplier group: 16,631

Nasturtium x5 multiplier group: 10,081

Dahlia x 10 multiplier group: 14,776

Allium x10 multiplier group: 11,591

Cornflower x 10 multiplier group: 8515

All accounts played for the entire duration of the event.

There was some odd player behaviour observed and notably players very close in sixth place making no effort to catch up or overtake. Very little activity was noted in the last few hours of the event.

As there were a lot of levels being crushed in these five accounts I got some pretty convincing data on purple scores at the varying level ranges.

Those players playing below level 1000 had the lowest average scores:

100-120 purple/level

Players at 1000 - 5000 almost all scored between 110 -135 purple per level (averaged)

So (average) purple output per level is tightly controlled by the app.

christinewupp

That old trick still works then @michimune : You needed only to play one or maybe two episodes to qualify. I also found that 2-3 of the five qualifiers used a token on each leaderboard.

michimune

I entered into this round around 10 hours left to closing😆:

I was no.9😜

What was happening in the top position?🤔👀

No.1 Coolicat was using token to keep her position

No.2 Poseidón had finished his token and took a break

No.3 jules had started using her token.

Last round only one player used token, this round had three.😏

X30 tokens are very powerful, so it’s easy to know who used them.

This No.2 player card was taken AFTER this round:

He had passed only 10 levels for the last round and this round, so I think he had used token on last round too, maybe his strategy is a token per round. 🤞

I closed my game SUDDENLY to enjoyed my breakfast first 🫖🍞

🎉🎊yeah~🥳

This kind of daily reward is better than the Season Pass🤭🤭

The top 3 had appeared after my breakfast:

Last 3 minutes:

Paula had opened her game two hours ago, but I think she had sufficient score to qualify in her OWN leaderboard.

christinewupp

Jejsta123

The leader on my board is showing as level 280, current win streak is 22. Score is 10794. Player 2 is at level 2523 with a win streak of 0 score is 6869.

christinewupp

https://community.king.com/en/candy-crush-saga/discussion/comment/3477917#Comment_3477917

Alienscar

So essentially all these players were stuck at a level when they entered the knockout round.

If so then all those measures King introduced to encourage players to keep their win streaks, like the super charger, win streak bags, Candy Royale etc must be a resounding failure

Well we have been advising people for years not to hold on to their Win Streaks, so maybe people listen. 😉

I played one Episode to finish third on the leaderboard. I used one of my X5 tokens.

michimune

Looking at the player cards: Out of 95 opponents 43 have a win streak of zero or 1. So essentially all these players were stuck at a level when they entered the knockout round.

Perhaps these bespoke opponents are already excluded from the Qualifiers, they were the no.4, no.5 and no.6 in last round 🤔

They are just picked for you and they don't need to play this event actually.

Peaches12

I just checked the win streaks on my opponents and two have a win streak of 15, one has 12, ten have 0, and everyone else is under 10.

christinewupp

All my games have started now and I am perplexed once again by the overall lack of strength of the opponents.

It makes me wonder if:

b) these opponents are fake and put in our games to make it easy for all players to get into the final

c) the best players are all being excluded from this event, which is unfair

Binx55

I never had the option to play the Valentine Knockout round.

Deal_One

@christinewupp Thanks for the advice. I have not started yet.