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Hello @morganmat and welcome to the community!
In fact it is not about moves, it is about a "lucky board". This is the case with many particularly hard to pass levels. The candies don't fall randomly and if you have a chance to pass is decided by an algorithm that determines if the right candies drop for a player to create the combos of special candies that will allow you to pass. Check out my best tips here:
This video is a perfect example of what you need to look out for: A chance to destroy the cake early and note how in this video a colour bomb forms seemingly out of nowhere and is easy to place next to a striped candy at the point of 14 moves remaining. You will need a combo like this to pass, so watch out for a lucky board and then make sure you take advantage of any such opportunity. You will need combos of colour bomb/wrap, colour bomb/stripe and wrap/stripe to pass this level and also the striped candies and fishes from the dispensers help near the end.
Good luck!