Can future weather be predicted?

_Elsa_

A week later Elsa decides to go back to her story. It is now mid-May and the weather is still very cold. Did Spring really forget this year? Or could it have been the polar vortex that caused such cold weather? 

‘To understand the long-term behavior of the atmosphere, climate scientists look at weather patterns over many decades or even centuries. The scientists study the way energy moves through the atmosphere — measuring and modeling things like the amount of sunlight hitting Earth, the rate that the oceans absorb heat and the mix of gases in Earth's atmosphere over time. By studying the root causes of long-term changes in Earth's atmosphere, climate scientists can project future effects.

Regardless of short-term weather, the data about the long-term changes in Earth's atmosphere are clear. The concentration of carbon dioxide - a potent greenhouse gas - is on the rise. The Earth is getting hotter on average, and a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. That suggests that as the climate shifts, droughts and floods that used to merit international attention will become commonplace. And while a shift to hotter average temperatures may sound innocuous or even pleasant, the danger comes from the more frequent extreme heat waves and the variability of an unstable atmosphere - bouncing from extreme heat to extreme cold in very short time frames. There is no doubt that as those extremes become the norm, they will have profound effects on global food security, health and water access.’ (Source)

And now our story comes to an end. Elsa is still not sure if it’s the polar vortex that caused this cold weather.  Or could it be that spring just forgot to show up this year.

The end!

Start at the beginning – The year that spring forgot

siti_payung

Wow.. Elsa, this story is a very very long story and full of scientific research and information. I was wondering if I am reading a Nasa article.. Please don't get offended.. Its a compliment. Superb and brilliant story.. Most of the terms I am not fimiliar but still I try very hard to understand them. Good work Elsa.

_Elsa_

I am not offended @siti_payung at all! I found the information but only read some of the content. So move over because I'm standing next to you with a ? what are they talking about. 😁

siti_payung

Hahaha... The weather can be predict but not 100% correct. The surrounding changes sure have meaning if we carefully read them.

DieOmimi

Thank you @Elsa for these stories. I felt like a student listening to her teacher with curiosity. Really, there was a lot of knowledge from everyday life with scientific backgrounds. I watch the weather forecast on TV every day. The weather expert also explains well the isobar and what the significance for the temperatures in the next few days is.

It is astonishing how exactly science has analyzed the weather phenomena and is too likely to announce the weather for the next few days.

I, too, have noticed in recent years that the winters are not so cold anymore in Europe and that spring seems shorter.

Nevertheless, for me, spring is still the most beautiful season. When the first flowers bloom, the birds begin to chirp and the trees develop delicate green. Take a deep breath and you are almost born like a new one.

_Elsa_

Thanks for the compliments!