The polar vortex now

_Elsa_

‘In late December, a record-setting high-pressure area in Mongolia and a hurricane-force low-pressure system in the North Pacific sent upward moving atmospheric waves into the stratosphere, disrupting the high-altitude stratospheric polar vortex and causing a sudden stratospheric warming event. This warming event was so strong that it caused the whirlpool of winds encircling the pole to slacken and then even reverse direction, as the cold was displaced to the south.

The stratosphere has transferred some of this energy into the lower atmosphere, via downward-moving atmospheric waves, where it can help determine which areas get buried in blizzards while others see unusually mild conditions. It’s not guaranteed that each polar vortex disruption or stratospheric warming event will yield unusually cold and snowy conditions, given how unique each event is.

The ongoing event, which kicked off in early January, has been complex. “Typically, when you get a large disruption, that’s it,” said Judah Cohen, a polar vortex specialist and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research. “[But this time] we got a split, then it recovered; it kind of split again, and now it’s displaced, and it could split a third or fourth time.” (Source)

Elsa gets this worried look on her face.  Now what? Should she continue reading or just give up in disgust? Tomorrow is another day so it’s time to close down the computer and go relax until bedtime.

Let’s continue - Can future weather be predicted?

Start at the beginning – The year that spring forgot